Bills-Pats for AFC East supremacy? Are the Colts toast? We overreact to Week 14
Dan GrazianoDec 7, 2025, 08:19 PM ETCloseDan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — It is not an overreaction to say that I’m excited for the Buffalo Bills’ new stadium, which greeted me as a spooky, hulking colossus when I arrived at the old place across the street in the pre-dawn hours ahead of the Bengals-Bills game on Sunday. The old stadium is, well, old, and presumably the new one will include many more modern conveniences and be an easier place to work.However, it is also not an overreaction to say I’m going to remember a lot of really cool games I’ve covered at creaky old Highmark Stadium. Nor is it an overreaction to say that Sunday’s wild 39-34 Bills victory was one of them.Snow swirled throughout the game, which must have looked amazing on TV. Joe Burrow looked like an absolute machine for three quarters, moving the Bengals up and down the field in a game they absolutely needed to win, building a 10-point fourth-quarter lead that vanished in less than five minutes when the Bills intercepted consecutive passes, running one back for a touchdown.Bills quarterback Josh Allen held steady and made the fourth-quarter hero plays that got the crowd chanting “MVP” for the man who currently has that award. When you watch Allen play, it makes you wonder why he doesn’t win it every year.It was a breathtaking game, the intensity heightened by AFC playoff stakes. In the end, the Bengals blew it, as they have way too many times this season, and fell to 4-9. Could they still run the table and win the AFC North at 8-9? Sure. But it’s not looking good. On the other hand, the Bills are trying to come back and win a sixth straight AFC East title. So we begin the Week 14 overreactions column, where we try to figure out which overreactions might hold up and which ones are mirages, with the Buffalo Bills.Jump to:Bills, Patriots set for AFC East title clash?Are the Colts in long-term trouble?Mike Tomlin’s above-.500 streak to continue?Mendoza to be Raiders’ QB in 2026?Lions to overtake Packers in NFC North?Fantasy-related overreactionsNext week’s Bills-Patriots game will decide the AFC EastThe Patriots had their bye this week, so the Bills’ victory shaved a half-game off New England’s division lead and left Buffalo two games back with four to play. The Bills lost to the Patriots in Buffalo earlier this season, so a Patriots victory next week would effectively clinch the division for New England because Buffalo would be three games back with three to play and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.The Patriots have won 10 games in a row. The Bills have won five of their last seven and certainly have the experience edge this time of year. Next week sets up as a pretty fun showdown as the Patriots look to muscle up and take back the division they used to own.Editor’s Picks1 RelatedVerdict: OVERREACTIONNot to spoil the excitement with math, but the tiebreakers really favor the Patriots here, even if Buffalo goes in there and wins next week. With head-to-head being split in that scenario, the next tiebreaker would be division record. If Buffalo wins next week, its division record would be 3-2 and New England’s would be 3-1. Let’s assume Buffalo beats the Jets in Week 18 to finish 4-2 in the AFC East. The Patriots would then have to lose to both the Jets and the Dolphins to fall behind in that tiebreaker.If they both end up with the same division record (let’s say, for the sake of argument, 4-2), the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Right now, the Patriots are 8-1 against teams the Bills have also played (with Baltimore, Miami and the Jets still to come) and the Bills are 9-3 against teams the Patriots have played (with the Browns and Jets still to come).Let’s say the Bills run the table and finish 13-4 overall, 4-2 in the division and 11-3 in common-opponent games. They’d still need the Patriots to win no more than one of their final three games, all of which are against teams that currently have losing records. Unless the Patriots are go into a season-ending 1-3 or 0-4 tailspin, next week’s game probably doesn’t impact who ends up winning the AFC East, I’m sorry to say. Bills still need to win it to keep pace in the wild-card race, but they’ll need a miracle or two to extend their division title streak.The Colts are in big trouble — this season and in the years to comeThe Colts lost in Jacksonville on Sunday, which they do every year. Seriously, they have not won there since 2014 and they play there every season. But the circumstances of this loss feel way more dire than normal. The loss dropped the Colts out of first place — they now sit at 8-5, one game behind the first-place Jaguars and a half-game ahead of third-place Houston pending the Texans’ Sunday night game against the Chiefs.Moreover, and perhaps more significantly, quarterback Daniel Jones suffered what’s feared to be a torn Achilles during the game. The Colts’ incredibly promising season has hit the skids, as they’ve lost three games in a row and four of their last five. Their final four games of the season are, in order, at Seattle, home versus the 49ers, home versus the Jaguars and at Houston. Yikes.play1:39Daniel Jones injured as Jaguars beat ColtsThe Jaguars move closer to an AFC South title as they beat the Colts, who lost quarterback Daniel Jones to injury.Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTIONIndy could absolutely lose all four of those remaining games, finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs entirely, especially if they have to play rookie Riley Leonard at quarterback. Jones was playing so well this season that there was talk of signing him long-term. But with the Achilles injury seeming like a worst-case situation, is availability for next season could be in doubt.And since Jones got the job because 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson Sr. hasn’t panned out, that would leave the Colts at square one at the QB position and without a first-round pick in either of the next two drafts with which to address it due to the Sauce Gardner trade. A month ago, Indy was atop the conference. Life comes at you fast.Mike Tomlin is going to finish over .500 … againTomlin’s Steelers held on for a 27-22 victory in Baltimore on Sunday to move back into first place in the division nobody wants to win. Pittsburgh is now 7-6, one game in front of the second-place Ravens and three games ahead of the Bengals, whose season is on life support after Sunday’s loss in Buffalo.No one in the AFC North has a positive point differential for the season (something that can also be said about the NFC South), and only the Steelers have a winning record. They play Miami on “Monday Night Football” next week, then go to Detroit in Week 16, to Cleveland in Week 17 and finish at home with a rematch against the Ravens in Week 18. If they go 2-2 — or even 1-2-1 — Tomlin will continue one of the most remarkable streaks in coaching history. This is his 19th season as head coach of the Steelers, and he has never finished with a losing record.All of ESPN. 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Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTIONTomlin finds a way. They could lose any or all of their final four games. They aren’t a particularly good team. But they’re elite at taking advantage of other teams’ mistakes and accepting victories when they’re offered them. They caught a break in the fourth quarter Sunday when they got a replay reversal on what looked like an Isaiah Likely touchdown catch that would have put Baltimore in front, but that’s what they do. They put themselves in position to win on the margins and when things go badly for their opponent.I understand many Steelers fans don’t care about this anymore because it hasn’t translated into postseason success. And the fact is, you’re less likely to find yourself in a situation in the playoffs where you can just kind of putter along and win on the margins because the other team makes a mistake or something breaks against them. So I’m not sitting here and telling you this Steelers team and its 42-year-old quarterback are going to the Super Bowl. But 9-8? 10-7? How could you possibly be surprised at this point?Fernando Mendoza will be the Raiders’ quarterback next seasonMendoza is the man of the hour in college football after leading Indiana to the Big Ten title over Ohio State and claiming the No. 1 seed in the upcoming College Football Playoff. He’s been impressing scouts all year, and while it’s still too early to have any idea how the draft will shake out, there’s a chance he emerges as the preferred option among the QB-needy teams at the top of the draft.A lackluster loss to the Broncos on Sunday has the Raiders at 2-11, tied with the Titans and the Giants for the worst record in the league. We presume the Titans and Giants will not be in the market for quarterback in the 2026 draft after drafting their current starters this past April.Catch up on NFL Week 14• Takeaways, questions from each game »• Highlights » | Scoreboard » | More »
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTIONI mean, why not? The Geno Smith experiment obviously hasn’t gone as planned, and it’s entirely possible the Raiders will have another new head coach again in 2026 as they embark upon yet another rebuilding project. Smith got injured Sunday amid a miserable season, and while he’s under contract for next year and guaranteed $18.5 million, the Raiders could well decide to move on or relegate him to a backup role, especially if they’re in position to draft a rookie they believe could be their franchise guy.I’m not a scout and I’m not here to say Mendoza is going to be that. But you get the picture. This same blurb could have been written with “Browns” or “Jets” instead of “Raiders,” but the Raiders have the worst record of those three, so here we are.The Lions are going to overtake the Packers and win the NFC NorthDetroit opened the week with a very impressive Thursday night victory over the Cowboys. They are 8-5 and in third place in the division they’ve won the last two seasons, but they’re only a game behind second-place Chicago and a game and a half behind first-place Green Bay. Detroit has the best point differential in the division at plus-90, ahead of Green Bay’s plus-75. The Lions visit the Rams next week, then get a home game against the Steelers before finishing with road games in Minnesota and Chicago.The Packers go to Denver next week, then Chicago the week after that. They play Baltimore at home in Week 17 and Minnesota on the road in Week 18. The Bears have home games against the Browns and Packers the next two weeks, go on the road to San Francisco in Week 17 and finish with that home game against the Lions.Verdict: OVERREACTIONWhy don’t we like the Packers? They toughed out a home win Sunday against a Bears team that had won nine of its last 10 coming in and just knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs on Black Friday. Green Bay hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in any of their three losses. Christian Watson is the No. 1 receiver Jordan Love never knew he needed. They’ve beaten the Lions twice and the Bears once so far. The Packers should be the division favorites and a legit Super Bowl contender. Full stop.play0:22Christian Watson hauls in his second TDJordan Love passes to Christian Watson and he turns on the jets to the end zone to extend the Packers’ lead.Quick-hitter fantasy overreactionsChristian Watson is the Packers receiver you want. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I know Matt LaFleur hates the idea of designating someone a “No. 1 wide receiver,” but Watson gives them a size/speed/big-play element their other WRs don’t and the Packers know this. Health has been his only issue. If he’s healthy, there’s no reason not to expect him to continue his roll and win some people their fantasy championships.You can start Tony Pollard the rest of the way. OVERREACTION. Cam Ward is playing better, and the Titans’ offense is showing some life, but come on. If you’ve had Pollard all season there’s a decent chance you don’t have any more fantasy games left to play, anyway. He had the Browns this week and the 49ers and Chiefs the next two weeks. He had 65-yard and 32-yard touchdown runs Sunday, and 64 yards on his other 23 carries. Don’t chase that. You’re better than that. I believe in you.You can start both Rams RBs — Kyren Williams and Blake Corum — in the fantasy playoffs. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I sure wish I had this week. In the league where I have both of them and Christian McCaffrey, I went with Williams and Chris Rodriguez Jr. this week instead. The Rams are operating in a fairly strict, alternating-drive rotation with these two, and they think it’s helping keep them both fresh for a potential playoff run. They don’t have the best fantasy schedule coming up, but the Rams’ offense is rolling.play0:25Blake Corum breaks free for a 48-yard TDBlake Corum scores his second touchdown of the game on a 48-yard rush.Harold Fannin Jr. is a top-five TE in fantasy next year. OVERREACTION. Fannin is a really cool player, and the Browns use him the way Bowling Green did — all over the field and in a variety of roles and alignments. I’m just not sure we’re ready to project next year, since the Browns’ offense will likely have a different QB and, possibly, a different coach.Ryan Flournoy should be in your starting lineup the rest of the way. OVERREACTION. In a pinch, maybe, but he’s still No. 3 in the Cowboys’ WR rotation, where George Pickens just had really his first bad game of the season and CeeDee Lamb left with an injury. If Lamb is out this week, go ahead. But if not… I mean… this is the (fantasy) playoffs.
Δημοσιεύτηκε: 2025-12-08 01:33:00
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