Tuesday briefing: Is next year’s XXL World Cup an expansion too far?
Good morning. Last week in Washington a lengthy and glitzy ceremony saw the draw taking place for the 2026 men’s Fifa World Cup, the largest edition of the tournament to date, to be staged across the US, Mexico and Canada next June and July. It looks set to be a geopolitical showpiece for Donald Trump, reinforced by the ludicrous sight of him being awarded Fifa’s inaugural peace prize. The football tournament will feature 48 teams, 12 groups and 104 matches, a huge expansion from the 32-team format in place since 1998.The draw didn’t quite settle who is playing whom – the last six countries to qualify won’t be announced until March. But England and Scotland know who they will face, and Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland have a glimpse of what awaits them if they can steer their way through the Uefa playoffs next year.For today’s newsletter I spoke to the Guardian’s Paul MacInnes, who has been closely following the organisation of the tournament, about whether the new format is an expansion too far, the politics of this hosting choice, the environmental impact, and how Fifa seems set on bending its own rules. First, though, here are today’s big stories.Five big stories
Politics | Police are looking at allegations that Reform UK breached electoral law during its campaign to win leader Nigel Farage’s seat in Clacton at last year’s general election. The party denies claims by a Reform ex-councillor that it falsely reported expenses at the Clacton constituency.
Ukraine | European leaders rallied behind Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at 10 Downing Street on Monday night. There was no breakthrough on allowing Ukraine access to billions of pounds of frozen Russian assets but No 10 said “positive progress” was made, with further talks expected on freeing up an initial £78bn to fund a loan.
Royals | Prince Harry’s UK security arrangements are reportedly to be reviewed after he wrote to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, requesting a full security risk assessment.
Venezuela | A US invasion or attack on Venezuela could plunge South America into a “Vietnam-style” conflict, the chief foreign policy advisor to Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has warned.
Football | The former England footballer Joey Barton has been sentenced to six months in custody, suspended for 18 months, over a series of offensive social media posts targeting pundits Lucy Ward, Eni Aluko and broadcaster Jeremy Vine. Barton was found guilty at Liverpool court in November.
In depth: ‘Each time it has got bigger there’s been anxiety about the quality’President Donald Trump receives a medal as part of the Fifa peace prize. Photograph: Bonnie Cash/UPI/ShutterstockI dimly remember Argentina’s ticker-tape reception at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires in 1978 for that World Cup final, but the first men’s Fifa World Cup that truly captured my attention was in 1982. I loved the Panini España 82 sticker book, the Tango Espana ball, and the cute Naranjito mascot. It was the first time England had qualified for a World Cup finals since 1970, and their first appearance in my lifetime. Bryan Robson scored after 27 seconds in their opening match against Michel Platini’s France, and I was hooked.I feel less hooked for next year’s event. As Paul MacInnes put it, the World Cup remains “the biggest show in world sport”, but that doesn’t make it immune to diminishing returns. Twelve groups means 12 top seeds, keeping bigger nations apart longer, and more teams means the larger nations will be facing much lower-ranked opposition at the group stage than in the past. “There’ll be fantastic moments, of course,” he told me, “but people tune in for the drama – and you don’t get that if half the group stage feels predictable.”Why 48 teams might be an expansion too farIt would take a heart of stone to deny the excitement that players and fans of Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan are feeling as they make their World Cup debuts – Curaçao will be the smallest nation ever to appear – but there are huge questions about the expansion of the tournament.Paul pointed out that in Fifa’s defence, every previous expansion prompted grumbling about “diluting” the tournament, only for the football to win people over. “Each time it has got bigger there’s been anxiety about the quality and the competitiveness,” he said. “But a lot of people now would say 2022 was one of the best World Cups we’ve seen – and the final was probably the best of all.”Forty-eight is an awkward number, though. Fifa’s original plan had been for 16 groups of three teams playing two matches each to shake it down to 32, but that isn’t fair for teams who don’t compete in the last match, where participants would know what they needed to do to progress. There is a lingering shadow of the 1982 “disgrace of Gijón”, where West Germany and Austria managed to achieve exactly the 1-0 result that saw both teams progress at the expense of Algeria.“There are going to be some very imbalanced fixtures,” Paul said. “You’ll see a lot of attack versus defence, a lot of low blocks and players putting their bodies on the line to stifle the creative talents people actually tune in to watch. You can almost see it as a tournament of two halves: three weeks of cagey group games and then an intense two weeks of knockout.”Having more countries reach the finals has also arguably made qualifying have less jeopardy. In South America, the Conmebol qualifiers saw 10 teams play 90 matches across 18 matchdays, and only Venezuela, Peru and Chile got binned off at the end of that lengthy process.A very political World CupSome of the most potentially awkward political flashpoints have already been avoided. Ukraine may still make the finals, but Russia is banned. Israel failed to qualify. Iran, however, will be travelling to Trump’s US – although Iranian officials threatened to boycot last week’s draw event in Washington after visa disputes.And then there is the small matter of the main host’s president – the US is staging the bulk of the matches. Paul said that while Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s public line is that he simply works with whoever is in charge, his relationship with Trump has raised eyebrows.“He’s been far more present in the US than in Mexico or Canada,” Paul said. “It’d be hard to say he hasn’t developed an unusually strong relationship with Trump.”The US president has already taken potshots at what he calls liberal hotbed host cities such as Boston and Seattle. Paul told me it is not hard to imagine a scenario where threats are made to strip games as a political gesture – even if they never actually come to pass. “If that happens, you’re talking about huge logistical issues, legal problems and reputational damage for Fifa. But you can also imagine a lot of talk and nothing much changing. With Trump, both are possible.”Ticket prices are stingingWhen Fifa launched the ticket sales for the tournament in October, my colleague Bryan Armen Graham suggested that “the whole process resembled less a ticket release than a psyop to calibrate how much frustration and scarcity the public will tolerate”.Alongside the usual presales – including a phase where purchases could only be made by Visa – Fifa has created its own resale marketplace, ensuring it gets a cut of any tickets changing hands. Initial tickets for some group games started at around $60, top-tier seats for later games and the final soar into the thousands of dollars. Fifa is also selling digital tokens that provide the right-to-buy tickets, but don’t appear to actually guarantee you’ll get in to see the game.“Fans see it as alien and highly exploitative,” he told me. “You’ve got tickets being bought and then flipped on an official platform where the prices can fluctuate again. For supporters, it doesn’t feel like a tournament ‘for all’, whatever the branding says – it feels like a case study in the increasing commercialisation of the World Cup.”In New York, the issue has already become part of the city’s politics, with recently elected mayor Zohran Mamdani demanding a cap on prices.Environmentally unfriendlyTeams and fans will be crisscrossing a continent for weeks on end to make it to the 2026 tournament – in a situation where teams in England’s group, for example, may end up playing in Toronto in their second match and in Mexico City in a fifth. Environmental groups have raised concerns about the carbon footprint of this.The environmental impact of 2030 is possibly going to be even worse, with the tournament mostly being held in Spain, Portugal and Morocco – but with extra matches tacked on in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay to mark the centenary of the first World Cup in 1930.By a very lucky coincidence, hosting the 2030 men’s World Cup in Europe, South America and Africa, four years after North America hosted, meant the way was clear for petrostate Saudi Arabia to be the sole bidder for the 2034 tournament, as Fifa insists a continent must have two tournament cycles between hosting opportunities.Fifa’s flexible friend: its own regulationsFootball doesn’t have rules – it has the “laws of the game” – but Fifa often acts like a law unto itself. Just days after Cristiano Ronaldo appeared in the White House with Trump, Fifa decided to commute, to one match, his three-match ban for violent conduct after a red card against Ireland – also very luckily meaning he doesn’t have to miss Portugal’s first two group stage matches at the World Cup.Paul said the tweaks run deeper than disciplinary decisions. “They’ve restructured the seeding so, assuming they win their groups, the top four ranked teams – Spain, France, England and Argentina – can’t meet until the very latest stages,” he explained. “It’s being described as ‘tennis-style’, but it removes the unpredictability and the sense of equality fans associate with a World Cup.”The irony, he noted, is that the famous earlier-round collisions between giants – France v Argentina in 2018, Brazil v Italy in 1982 – often produce the tournament’s defining matches. “By the time you get to the semi-finals. everyone’s exhausted and cautious,” Paul said. “The best football often comes earlier. This could backfire.”There also seems to be a tweak in the offing that would see the award of every corner during the World Cup subject to a VAR check. As someone who attends international and Premier League matches, and has a season ticket at Leyton Orient in League One – blissfully VAR-free – I can tell you exactly what I prefer as an in-stadium experience, and it isn’t more video refereeing every time the ball goes out.skip past newsletter promotionOur morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what’s happening and why it mattersPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.after newsletter promotionStill a big ticket drawFor all the format-tinkering, politicking, ticket-gouging and environmental concerns, one thing is unchanged. “People want to watch the World Cup. They will watch it. There’s no question,” Paul said.How they watch it may feel a little different. Late-night kick-offs, bloated group stages and long-haul travel will take some of the shine off for some supporters. I’ll confess those factors have somewhat dampened my personal enthusiasm. Previously, I’ve basically never missed a game on TV – regardless of the teams and the time zones – but the leap from watching 64 matches to watching 104 is a big one.The World Cup will still have its moments of glory – but for once, I may not be there for every single one of them.What else we’ve been readingGolden Globes nominations (clockwise from top left) … One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Hamnet and Sinners. Composite: Warner Bros/A24/ Focus Features
Catherine Shoard takes us through the runners and riders of the Golden Globe awards nominations (pictured above). Paul Thomas Anderson is way out in front with nine mentions for his counterculture caper One Battle After Another starring Leonardo De Caprio. Karen
Time’s winged chariot marches on, and I really enjoyed this nostalgic recall by SuperDeluxeEdition’s Paul Sinclair of what it was like when the Beatles Anthology series first appeared – gulp – some 30 years ago. Martin
I enjoyed this short but sweet piece by Stuart Clark encouraging people to wrap up and head away from street lights this weekend, to watch the climax of the Geminids meteor shower, which could result in up to 100 meteors an hour on 13 and 14 December. Karen
I’ve witnessed the joy finding rare Pokémon cards brings a child, so was increasingly annoyed reading about how a rise in trading card scalping is depriving kids of that fun. Martin
Steve Rose interviews young activists who, following a successful campaign to persuade Snapchat and Tiktok to moderate some harmful content, are now taking on tech companies, in this piece on Europe’s first digital justice movement, Ctrl+Alt+Reclaim. Karen
SportFormula One world champion Lano Norris celebrates after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at the weekend. Photograph: Xavi Bonilla/DPPI/ShutterstockF1 | Lando Norris has claimed he performed at levels his rivals often could not match this season, after he was crowned Formula One World champion for the first time.Premier League | Bruno Fernandes scored twice and Bryan Mbeumo and Mason Mount one each as Manchester United climbed to sixth by thrashing Wolves 4-1.Football | Mohamed Salah has been left out of Liverpool’s Champions League trip to Milan to play Inter today following his criticism of the club and Arne Slot.The front pages“‘A critical moment’: European leaders rally behind Ukraine”. That is the top story in today’s Guardian, while the Times has “Deal to unlock £100bn for Ukraine ‘within days’”. The Mail has “Head of Navy’s broadside at Reeves over defence cash”. “Boat migrants smuggle in heroin” proclaims the Telegraph, saying smugglers offer free passage to those who do. “Together we pull light out of darkness” – the Mirror on how parents of the children murdered in the Southport stabbings have shared stories and pictures for a BBC documentary.The Express has “‘Leave no stone unturned’ for grooming gangs probe” which is attributed to Kemi Badenoch. “Tour de force” – the Metro says it’s “Cops v criminals in e-bike pursuit”. The i paper runs with “Pension pot hit will delay retirement age, experts warn” and the Tuesday’s Financial Times splashes on “Paramount gatecrashes Netflix deal for Warner Bros”.Today in FocusAlex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies Photograph: Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesPalantir: the world’s ‘scariest company’?How far will tech firm Palantir go to ‘save the west’? With Michael Steinberger and Johana BhuiyanCartoon of the day | Ben Jennings Illustration: Ben Jennings/The GuardianThe UpsideA bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all badDhruti Shah with her takeaway box at Fair Shot in Covent Garden, London. Photograph: Alicia Canter/The GuardianDhruti Shah had long loved trying new foods with friends and family, and eating out, but she realised she often didn’t finish what was on her plate. Just before the pandemic, she decided to change that by bringing her own takeaway box to outings, a habit shaped by her Gujarati Jain Kenyan-Indian upbringing where wasting food simply was not an option.In this reflective piece, Shah explains how the simple act of packing leftovers has helped honour her parents’ resourcefulness, reduce her environmental impact and feel more confident about being “different”. Her little takeaway box now comes everywhere with her – sparking conversations, inspiring friends to do the same, and creating, in her own words, a “mini movement, reducing food waste one box at a time”.Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every SundayBored at work?And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
Δημοσιεύτηκε: 2025-12-09 06:51:00
πηγή: www.theguardian.com
